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mobiles
This
page considers mobile (cellphone) networks and use of
mobiles in advanced and emerging economies.
It covers -
introduction
The
number of mobile phone customers passed the two billion
mark in September 2005. It is likely that there are now
more mobiles in use than 'fixed' (landline or POTS) handsets.
In some advanced economies the overall number of landlines
in use is declining as consumers migrate to the net (eg
share voice and net traffic on an ADSL line) and mobile
networks. In developing economies mobiles have been hailed
as potentially the major bridge across different digital
divides.
Adoption of mobile phone technology by consumers and network
operators, whether as a complement or alternative to POTS
phones, has reflected -
- the
portability of mobile handsets and devices such as PDAs
- the
inclusion of features such as digital cameras and access
to sound files
- the
ability to send/receive SMS and MMS
- the
privacy offered by mobiles, which are typically 'owned'
by an individual rather than by an organisation or shared
with a family
- the
ease with which a mobile network can be rolled out and
maintained by a network operator
- the
balance between maintenance costs and consumer willingness
to pay a premium for access to the network, typically
more attractive to network operators than traditional
copper-based POTS
In
considering mobile phones we can currently identify an
evolution through three basic generations of service,
often with different standards that are peculiar to particular
regions or even individidual network operators.
The first, retroactively labelled as 1G, used analogue
technology for the transmission of voice traffic.
The second generation encompasses competing standards
characterised as second generation (ie 2G) or personal
communications service (PCS). It uses digital technologies
that enabled better audio quality in voice transmissions,
increased capacity on networks through enhanced TDMA or
CDMA multiplexing and some data (eg time/date with voice
calls and SMS in '2.5G').
Most Australian mobile consumers rely on a 2G phone.
Third generation networks (3G), often an extension of
the main 2.5G standard, are designed to enable rapid transmission
of very large quantities of data, for example video clips
and other MMS. Adoption
of those networks has been inhibited by -
- the
absence of what many consumers regard as a compelling
case for switching to 3G
- licensing
restrictions by government, which have sought to extract
the maximum value by auctioning off spectrum to potential
3G network operators
- uncertainty
among operators about which standard to choose
- uncertainty
among content creators/packagers and service providers
about whether to enter the 3G market
- reluctance
among some operators to move to 3G while they are still
recouping investment in 2G.
mobiles and the net
Apart from personal computers, the internet device with
which many people are most familiar is the mobile phone.
The primary uses are voice and SMS (aka texting), with
both adults and the under-18 years cohorts in many countries
making intensive use for sending messages to peers and
receiving messages from other mobiles or from personal
computers via web interfaces.
Despite sometimes delirious forecasts by enthusiasts,
there has been little sustained consumer interest outside
Japan in use of mobiles for surfing, accessing music other
than ringtones (which until the advent of the iPod was
the most profitable online music sector), reading books
or watching video - erotic
or otherwise - that is longer than short clips.
Recurrent claims that mobiles will
soon
replace PCs as the most popular method of accessing
the Net
should
be regarded with scepticism. Although over a billion mobiles
may be "internet-enabled", few owners are using
that capacity and uptake of MMS has also been low. That
is unsurprising, given connectivity costs, usability barriers
and the absence of compelling content. Much of the hype
about "Hollywood blockbusters on your mobile"
relates to video downloaded over broadband and then transferred
- painfully - to the mobile. An IMAX experience it is
not!
Some users are more sensibly using a mobile as a bridge
between a laptop computer (larger screen, greater memory,
easier data entry and navigation) and the net. The convergence
discussed earlier in this guide means that the distinction
between mobile phones and laptops is blurring, with some
personal computers being shipped with or retrofitted with
a mobile phone card that obviates the need for a cable
or bluetooth connection to a mobile handset.
Such cautions have not deterred the brave (or merely foolhardy)
and it thus common to see proposals for the use of phones
as electronic wallets, repositories
of personal medical records or even passports,
or security devices.
The ABC for example burbled
that the mobile phone will
offer
us the ability to track
our friends or children; provide bullet-proof ID; act
as a credit card; download films and books; even replace
our front door keys.
That hype is similar to some of the wilder forecasts about
the imminent benefits (or horrid ills) of subcutaneous
RFID implants.
statistics
The
total number of mobile connections is now equivalent to
around 30% of the estimated world population of 6.5 billion
(with total connections higher than the real number of
users due to multiple connections and inactive prepaid
connections). The mobile industry celebrated reaching
1 billion subscribers in 2002, just 20 years after it
was introduced, making it the fastest growing technology
at that time. In the same year it overtook the fixed network
and its growth has carried on unabated with the second
billion coming in 205.
The GSM family of technologies, which includes W-CDMA,
has an estimated 1.5 billion subscribers as of 2005 (with
78% of the world market).
In many countries the cellular market is now maturing,
with market penetration over 100% of the population in
some nations such as the UK, Sweden, Austria and Italy.
In those states consumers are 'trading up' to new phones/services
such as 3G and aquiring additional phones. Globally most
growth is now coming from large, less well-developed markets
such as China, India, Eastern Europe, Latin America and
Africa.
Overall the mobile industry expects to ship around 750
million new devices in 2005, with Ovum projecting 3 billion
subscribers by the end of 2010. Gartner forecast in July
2005 that global handset sales would rise from an estimated
780 million to over 1 billion in 2009, with some 674 million
mobiles sold in 2004. Cumulative sales from 1997 to 2009
are forecast at around 7.5 billion phones (with around
2.6 billion in use).
current standards
There is no single global standard for mobile telephony,
with the result that some regions (and even some operators)
feature two or more standards.
2G essentially comprises competing TDMA and CDMA systems
-
- GSM
(TDMA), developed in Europe and subsequently adopted
in much of the world, including Australia
- PDC
(TDMA), used only in Japan
-
IDEN (TDMA), used by Nextel in the US and Telus in Canada
-
IS-136 (TDMA), used in the Americas and often referred
to as 'TDMA' or D-AMPS
- cdmaOne
(CDMA) commonly referred as simply CDMA in the US),
used in the Americas, Australia and parts of Asia and
often referred to as 'CDMA' or IS-95
The dominant family of 2G standards, particularly outside
the US, is GSM. It dates from the Groupe Spécial
Mobile (GSM) study group established in 1982 by the Conference
of European Posts & Telegraphs (CEPT) to develop a
pan-European public mobile system. CEPT envisaged that
the system would supersede incompatible individual operator/national
developments and feature -
- good
subjective speech quality
- low
terminal and service cost
- support
for international roaming and new services
- spectral
efficiency and ISDN compatibility
Responsibility for GSM was assumed by the European Telecommunication
Standards Institute (ETSI) in 1989, with commercial services
commencing in 1991.
A lucid introduction to GSM is here.
3G networks and applications
Third generation networks, aspiring to provide seamless
access to email, audio, still and moving images and other
content, use a range of technologies that are an extension
of 2.5G systems and thus reflect the ambitions of specific
nations and network consortia.
Those technologies include -
- Universal
Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS, sometimes promoted
as 3GSM) is based on GSM and has been developed under
the auspices of the Third Generation Partnership Program
(3GPP)
consortium representing European and Japanese interests
- CDMA-2000-1x-EvDO,
also based on CDMA, has been deployed commercially in
Japan and claimed to offer better performance than UMTS.
- Personal
Handy-phone System (PHS, sometimes promoted as Personal
Access System or PHS).
use in advanced economies
A detailed profile on SMS
is here, along with a complementary profile on MMS
and on ringtones.
i-mode
In Japanese mobile phone giant NTT DoCoMo
announced mid-2001 that subscribers on its wireless internet
i-mode network had climbed to 20 million, 100% growth
over a seven month period.
DoCoMo, something of an oddity, claimed that consumers
were serviced by 828 companies offering information on
i-mode and between 1,500 to 40,000 sites. The uncertainty
reflects questions about the compatibility of many of
the sites; only a thousand or so are formally recognised
by DoCoMo, which uses a proprietary standard.
Telecommunications analysts suggest that DoCoMo is now
gaining around a million users each month. The use made
of the service is more problematical. Many anecdotal reports
suggest that the service is overwhelmingly used for 'texting',
rather than 'surfing'. It is an 'always-on' packet-data
transmission system. Subscribers are charged according
to the volume of data they transmit, not the time spent
online.
studies
For a concise historical and cultural overview of mobile
phones see on John Agar's Constant Touch: A Global
History of the Mobile Phone (London: Icon 2003).
There is a more detailed discussion in Perpetual contact:
Mobile communication, private talk, public performance
(Cambridge: Cambridge Uni Press 2002) edited by James
Katz & Mark Aakhus and in Hans Geser's 2002
paper
Towards a Sociological Theory of the Mobile Phone.
Anxieties about mobiles
are explored in Adam Burgess' persuasive Cellular
Phones, Public Fears & A Culture of Precaution
(Cambridge: Cambridge Uni Press 2004).
Industry associations and individual network operators
have published reports of varying quality about uptake
of mobiles. In Australia for example see the thin Australian
Mobile Phone Lifestyle Index released
in 2005 to "address the information deficit regarding
mobile phone usage in Australia".
R Bekkers & J Smits explore standards in Mobile
Telecommunications: Standards, Regulation & Applications
(Boston: Artech House 1998)
For i-mode see the 2001 paper
from IBM on The Semi-Walled Garden: Japan's "i-mode
Phenomenon" and Jeffrey Funk's paper From Ticket
Reservations to Phones as Tickets and Money: New Applications
for the Mobile Internet in the Japanese Market (PDF).
We have pointed
to corporate histories of the mobile phone giants elsewhere
on this site. They include Anytime, Anywhere: Entrepreneurship
and the Creation of a Wireless World (New York: Cambridge
Uni Press 2002) by Louis Galambos & Eric Abrahamson,
Rollercoaster: The Turbulent Life & Times of Vodafone
& Chris Gent (New York: Wiley 2003) by Trevor
Merriden, the triumphalist DoCoMo: Japan's Wireless
Tsunami: How One Mobile Telecom Created a New Market and
Became a Global Force (New York: Amacom 2002) by
John Beck & Mitchell Wade and Money from Thin
Air: The Story of Craig McCaw, the Visionary who Invented
the Cell Phone Industry, and His Next Billion-Dollar Idea
(New York: Crown 2000) by O Casey Corr.
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