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forecasting The record of technological forecasting has, overall, been pretty dim. Predictions of specific technologies have been poor. Predictions of their implementation and implications have fared even worse. This page highlights writing about crystal ball gazing.      past predictions Ithiel de Sola Pool's Forecasting the Telephone: A Retrospective Technology Assessment of the Telephone (Norwood, Ablex 83) is crisp, entertaining, erudite and without the compulsion to spraypaint jargon on every second page. Carolyn Marvin's When Old Technologies Were New: Thinking About Electric Communications in the Late 19th Century (New York, Oxford Uni Press 90) is also suggestive. Daniel Bell's The Coming of Post-Industrial Society: A Venture in Social Forecasting (New York, Basic Books 73) deserves mention for introducing the notion of the 'information society' into general debate. Michael Dertouzos's The Computer Age: A Twenty-Year View (Cambridge, MIT Press 79) is somewhat starry-eyed but overall shows the intelligence you'd expect from the author. Derek Leebaert's Technology 2001: The Future of Computing & Communications (Cambridge, MIT Press 91) is also valuable, more so than Stephen Saxby's The Age of Information: The Past Development & Future Significance of Computing & Communications (New York, New York Uni Press 90). Reality Check (San Francisco, Hardwired 96) edited by Brad Wieners & David Pescovitz collects the Reality Check column from Wired magazine.  Ostensibly an exercise in debunking (no, don't export to teleport to Mars or play cybertennis on Pluto when you're aged 506) it's glibly upbeat, with an emphasis on technology as such rather than the wider economic and social ramifications. We regard it as information economy elevator music, though not recommended to those who dislike Wired's how-many-weird-fonts-can-I-squeeze-on-the-page typography.  The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years (New York, Macmillan 67) by Herman Kahn & Anthony Wiener is a classic example of the genre. It's like a particularly rich Christmas pudding: the odd bit of silver mixed in with the nuts and the glace fruit. The Temporary Society: What is Happening to Business & Family Life in America Under the Impact of Accelerating Change (San Francisco, Jossey-Bass 00) by Warren Bennis & Philip Slater was first published in 1968 and has proved to be more percipient, perhaps because it concentrated on broad attitudinal changes rather than specific technologies.  Our profile on the communications revolutions highlights some of the economic and historical studies about visions, plans and actualities.      the forecasting game William Sherden's The Fortune Sellers: The Big Business of Buying & Selling Predictions (New York, Wiley 97) is a crisp introduction to the history and nature of business, economic and technology forecasting.  Steven Schnaars' MegaMistakes: Forecasting & the Myth of Rapid Technological Change (New York, Free Press 88) is an entertaining study of why people get it wrong in predicting consumer acceptance of new technologies.  There's another perspective in William Gosling's Helmsmen & Heroes: Control Theory As A Key To Past & Present (London, Weidenfeld & Nicolson 94) and James Beninger's Control Revolution: Technological & Economic Origins of the Information Society (Cambridge, Harvard Uni Press 89).      technology and economy Does Technology Drive History? The Dilemma Of Technological Determinism (Cambridge, MIT Press 94) is a collection of essays edited by Leo Marx & Merritt Smith with a far more nuanced analysis than anything in Toffler, Roszak, Gilder or Sale.  Knowing Machines: Essays On Technological Change (Cambridge, MIT Press 98) by Donald MacKenzie, Exploring The Black Box: Technology, Economics & History (Cambridge, Cambridge Uni Press 94) by Nathan Rosenberg and the lucid Paths of Innovation: Technological Change in 20th Century America (Cambridge, Cambridge Uni Press 98) by David Mowery & Nathan Rosenberg are three insightful examinations of economic/technological development and the perils of forecasting. Graeme Snooks' deliciously loopy The Dynamic Society: Exploring The Sources of Global Change (London, Routledge 96) is a panoramic history that argues that technology and economics rather than politics are the drivers for social and cultural development (although many would say, of course, that they're inextricably intertwined).  Fans of Snooks or Manuel Castell may enjoy The Carrier Wave: New Information Technology & the Geography of Innovation, 1846-2003 (London, Unwin Hyman 88) by Peter Hall & Paschal Preston, an analysis of economic development in terms of the information infrastructure and Kondratieff waves.  There's a a broader perspective in the detailed report on Fostering Research on the Economic & Social Impacts of Information Technology (Washington, National Academies Press 98).      futures organisations  Among organisations dedicated to study of the future we note the World Future Society (WFS), publisher of Futurist magazine, and the Australian-based Futures Studies Centre (FSC) under the leadership of Richard Slaughter, Professor of Foresight at Swinburne Uni of Technology.  His Futures For The Third Millennium: Enabling The Forward View (St Leonards, Prospect Media 99) is somewhat too New Age for our taste but supplies a useful bibliography.    next page  (futures)